On Saturday, Feburary 21st, Ryan Garcia takes on Mario Barrios for Barrios’ WBC welterweight title. This is a fight of great consequence for both fighters. Both Garcia and Barrios come into this bout with something to prove.

Ryan Garcia comes into this bout with a record of 24-2 with 20 wins by knockout. Which is an impressive record but Garcia has only fought twice over the last two years. In 2024, Garcia took on Devin Haney in a huge match-up where Garcia shined. He knocked Haney down three times in the fight and won by unanimous decision but that victory was short lived as Garcia tested positive for a banned substance. The win was eventually overturned into a no-contest.

Garcia took off a year after the Haney fight and returned against Rolando Romero. In that bout, Garcia looked flat and was not able to get his offense going at all. Romero knocked Garcia down in the second round and outboxed him for the rest of the bout.

A lot of fans, including myself, were critical of the fact that Garcia got a title shot after his last two bouts. Garcia needs to prove that he belongs on the world championship level and can defeat a world champion without the “special help” he had in the Haney fight.

A loss in this fight against Barrios would be a huge setback for Garcia and put him in a position where he would have to climb his way back into title contention. A win for Garcia could set up a rematch against Haney or a mega fight against Shakur Stevenson. A world title on his resume along with his popularity would set Garcia up for many major opportunities.

Mario Barrios comes into this bout with a record of 29-2-2 with 18 wins by way of knockout. Barrios’ last two bouts have also had disappointing results with each bout ending in a draw. He had a split decision draw against Abel Ramos and then a majority draw against Manny Pacquiao. That was Pacquiao’s first fight in four years.

After those two fights, Barrios is looking to rebound and solidify himself as not only a belt holder but someone who can be the best in the welterweight division. A loss, especially by knockout will be a huge setback for Barrios but a win can set up unification bouts or big name, big money fights.

In a fight that both fighters must win, how would they best go about getting that victory?

Keys to Victory for Mario Barrios

Make Ryan Play Defense

Ryan Garcia is a talented fighter but has fundamental flaws that can be taken advantage of. He has never been a great defensive fighter and is there to get hit. Barrios is capable of knocking him down by overwhelming him with offense at times.

Garcia does not have the footwork to get out of trouble and has to return fire when his opponent throws combinations. This leaves Garcia open for counter shots like hooks and uppercuts. Barrios can catch him with a clean counter shot when Garcia feels threatened.

J-A-B, that’s the word for today, Jab

Barrios has a slight reach advantage that can work to his advantage. Garcia has been the naturally bigger fighter in most of his bouts. He has had trouble when a consistent jab has been thrown. Against Devin Haney, Haney was able to control rounds when he used his jab to put Garcia on the backfoot.

Rolando Romero was able to use his jab to the body to throw off the rhythm of Garcia in their bout. Barrios has a good jab, that if used correctly could lead to a win.

You can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a left hook

It has been well documented that Garcia’s best punch is his left hook. One key to defending against it is to be disciplined with your right hand and keep it up throughout the fight. Another way to defend against the left hook is to dodge the left hook and make Garcia pay.

Garcia can be a bit wild with his left hook at times. If Barrios is able to make him miss, he could make him pay. Now, Barrios does not have the power of Gervonta Davis but he does have enough power to hurt Garcia. A moment like this could be the difference between winning and losing.

Keys to Victory for Ryan Garcia

Conditioning and Consistency

Ryan Garcia is usually great in spurts. He has these explosive moments where he can land that devastating left hook or powerful straight right hand. He hasn’t fought a consistency 12 round bout in over two years. He has to come into this bout ready to throw more punches and stay mentally ready for the entire bout. If he tries to depend on the few explosive moments to win, Barrios will outbox him.

Body Head Banger

Garcia is known for his ability to hurt his opponents both upstairs and downstairs. If he is able to use his left hook effectively, it could lead to a knockdown or knockout via a body shot.

Luke Campbell was so weary of the left hook upstairs that he left the body open and Garcia closed the distance is such a fashion that Campbell had no time to react, taking the body shot with all of its force which led to the knockout. Garcia may be able to do the same Barrios on Saturday night.

Remember the Fundamentals

Garcia has incredibly fast hands with power but slow feet and bad fundamentals at times. He gets in trouble when he pulls straight back and leaves his chin wide open.

In the video, Garcia got into a bad position, tried to back up but did it with his face wide open and got caught by Romero’s left hook. Garcia cannot make these mistakes against a veteran like Barrios.

Prediction

This will be a very entertaining bout between two fighters who need a win at this point in their boxing journeys. The desperation will lead to exciting exchanges and maybe a knockdown or two. The difference will be the fundamental discipline of Barrios over Garcia.

Garcia will have his moments but won’t be able to follow-up consistently leading to Barrios out boxing him and winning by decision.

Do you agree with my breakdown and prediction?