On Saturday, September 13th, undisputed super middleweight champion, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will defend his belts against the undefeated Terence Crawford. Crawford was most recently a belt holder at super welterweight.

This match-up is the biggest boxing match in quite a few years. It’s up there with Muhammad Ali vs Joe Frazier 1, Sugar Ray Leonard vs Marvin Hagler, Mike Tyson vs Evander Holyfield 1, Floyd Mayweather vs Oscar De La Hoya, and Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao.

We have the current face of boxing in Canelo Alvarez, who has one of the best resumes of all-time. Canelo is 63-2-2 with 39 wins by knockout, this includes win over, Miguel Cotto, Gennadiy Golovkin, Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders, Caleb Plant, Shane Mosley, and Austin Trout, among many others. Canelo has also had major success in multiple weight classes become a world champ in four weight classes.

In the other corner, we have arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the sport in Terence Crawford. Crawford is 41-0 with 31 wins by knockout, this includes win over Errol Spence Jr, Shawn Porter, Kell Brook, Julius Indongo, Viktor Postol, Ray Beltran, and Yuriorkis Gamboa, among others. Crawford has also been a world champ in four different weight classes.

In a fight that looks to be very evenly matched, where could each fighter find opportunities to take advantage of their gifts.

Keys to Victory for Terence Crawford

Use the Reach

Terence Crawford has a reach of 74″ compared to 70″ for Canelo. Crawford should keep try to keep Canelo on the outside by using his jab. We have seen Crawford have great success with his jab. In his fight against Errol Spence, Crawford dominated the fight with his jab, even scoring knockdowns with that punch.

Canelo has fought well against taller fighters with longer reaches but Crawford may be able to keep Canelo on the outside in the same way that Dmitry Bivol did in Canelo’s last defeat.

Selective Inside and Body Work

There will be times where Canelo is able to get inside on Crawford by using his high guard to penetrate Crawford’s defense. When Canelo comes in with that high guard, Crawford should go to the body in those instances and then get back out of the outside.

Crawford is a really good counter puncher to the body. He can use that ability to make Canelo think twice about bulling his way on the inside. If he makes Canelo hesitate in any way, that could be a big factor in a Crawford victory.

Set Traps

This last key is a combination of the first two. If Crawford is able to use his jab with movement, that could lead to Canelo getting anxious and opening himself up to counter punches from Crawford.

Crawford may be able to counter Canelo’s hooks by going to the body or even go upstairs with power jabs and straight left hands. Crawford has the advantage in both hand and foot speed, this could lead to frustration for Canelo and open him up to making mistakes.

Keys to Victory for Canelo

Be the Bigger Man

This fight is taking place at 168 pounds, which is the weight class that Canelo is the king of while Crawford is making his debut there. Canelo is the master of getting on the inside by using his high guard.

If he can get on the inside with his high guard and push Crawford back against the ropes and in the corner, that’s where Canelo can really go to work.

Body and Arms

Canelo has become great at staying in touch with his opponent. This means his does an amazing job of beating up his opponents arms, making it hard for the opponent to block Canelo’s punches as the fight goes along.

Another way to bring the arms down and make the head an accessible target is to consistently attack the body. This is something that Canelo is proficient at. Canelo can wear down Crawford round by round and this could lead to a late stoppage.

Prediction

This will be a great fight that goes back and forth with each boxer having their highlight moments. Crawford will be able to outpoint Canelo by using his jab and counter punching ability. Crawford will win by close unanimous decision.