The NBA season is now coming down the home stretch and the contenders are separating themselves from the pretenders.

What Makes a Team a Contender?

First. they need to be elite on either offense or defense while not being horrible on the opposite end. For example, if the team has a top 10 offense, they need to at least be a middle of the road on defense to be legit.

Secondly, true contenders have a go-to option. A player who can put the team on his back and win a game or two in a series with their brilliance.

Thirdly, a team has to have a secondary option that can play at the level of a primary option from time to time. If the primary option is having a bad game, can the team still win under those circumstances?

Last but not least, true championship contenders have real depth on their rosters. They have players who are not their top options who can play a big role in crucial moments. Let’s take a look at the top teams in the western conference.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an absolute CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDER. Yes, in bold and capital letters. They are top five on both the offensive and defensive side off the ball.

Their best player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a candidate for most valuable player. He has proven himself to be a player who can “put the team on his back” and carry them to victory. SGA is leading the league in scoring at 33 points per game, while shooting 52% from the floor.

OKC also has a great second and third option. Jalen Williams was selected as an all-star this season. He is averaging 21.3 points per game, shooting 47% from the floor, and 36% from three.

Chet Holmgren missed a big chunk of the season with a broken pelvis but has returned with a vengeance. Holmgren is averaging 15 points per game and shooting 50% from the floor.

The Thunder also have amazing depth. They have shown the ability to overcome injuries and still win. They are the epitome of contenders.

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets are currently the second seed in the western conference. They have been one of the feel good stories of the NBA this season. They are ahead of the projections that most fans and prognosticators set for them coming into this season.

I thought they would be at the upper end of the play-in or maybe a six seed. So, seeing this team being the two seed, this late in this season is a shock to most, including myself. They have gotten here behind their defense.

The Rockets are fifth in points allowed per game and third in defensive rating. Their head coach Ime Udoka has this team hustling on the defensive end. Where Houston can run into issues is on the offensive end of the floor.

The offense is led by Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. These players are very talented but have limitations. Sengun is averaging 19.1 points per game, while shooting 50% from the floor but only 24% from three. Green is averaging 21.4 points per game while shooting 42% from the floor.

The lack of consistent offensive fire power is why they are not contenders yet but they are ahead of schedule and have a very bright future.

Denver Nuggets

The core of the Denver Nuggets has won a championship before. Players like Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. , and Aaron Gordon have been to the mountain top before. That experience definitely helps their argument for being true championship contenders.

Another factor that is a positive for their argument, is that they have the best player in the NBA on their team. Nikola Jokic continues to ooze dominance. He is averaging 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game, while shooting 57% from the floor and 41% from three.

He has been the driving force behind the Nuggets third ranked offense. They are third in points per game and offensive rating. Denver also has a great second option in Murray. Murray is scoring 21.5 points per game, shooting 47% from the floor and 40% from three point range.

The offensive side of the ball is good on most nights for the Nuggets. The issue is on the defensive side of the ball. Denver is 24th in points allowed per game. This is simply not good enough and will be the reason they lose in the first or second round. The Denver Nuggets are pretenders.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers made maybe the biggest in-season trade in NBA history, when they sent Anthony Davis and Max Christie to the Dallas Mavericks for Luka Doncic. This trade transcended them from pretenders to contenders.

The Lakers now have three players who are capable of carrying the offense at any time, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reeves. Yes, I included Austin Reeves in that statement. Reeves is averaging 19.6 points and six assists per game. The Lakers’ third option is also shooting 44% from the floor and 36% from the floor.

Reeves being the third option behind LeBron and Luka, who are both averaging 25, 8, and 8, is absolutely insane. The Lakers have an offensive rating of 116.1 since Doncic joined the team, which would rank them seventh in the NBA.

The gold and purple have exceeded expectations on the defensive end in a major way. They are ninth in points allowed per game. When you look at the full picture of the Lakers, it screams championship contender. They are top ten on both sides of the ball with three players who they can run the offense through. On top of that, they have role players who have stepped up on both ends like Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith. LeBron James has a real shot at ring number five.

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors made the second biggest in-season trade this season, when they acquired Jimmy Butler. Just like the Lakers, that trade took the Warriors from pretenders to contenders.

Since that trade, the Warriors have had an offensive rating of 116 and a defensive rating of 110. That offensive rating would find Golden State in the top ten, while that defensive rating would put them in the top three in the NBA.

Butler’s impact is not shown in his stats, its shown in the overall improvement of the team. They have two go-to options in Butler and Steph Curry. Curry is averaging 27.1 points, 6.2 assists, and four rebounds per game over the last 15 games. He is also shooting 47% from the floor and 40% from three during that span.

Hopefully Curry recovers from his recent injury soon but Butler has shown the ability to lead the team in his absence.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies are a contender on paper. They are ranked in the top ten in offensive and defensive rating. They allow the fifth most points per game in the league but also play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Which explains the amount of points allowed.

The Grizzlies have two go-to options in Jaren Jackson Jr and Ja Morant. Jackson was selected to be an all-star this season. He is averaging 22.5 points per game while shooting 50% from the floor and 36% from three.

Morant is scoring 22.3 points per game, while shooting 45% from the floor and only 29% from three point range. Memphis also has a very good third option in Desmond Bane. Bane is shooting 48% from the floor, 39% from three and scoring 19.3 points per game.

The thing that gives me a cause to pause on calling them contenders is what happens when the game slows down? What happens when there are very few fast break opportunities and Morant is asked to make open threes? What happens when someone outside of their “big three” is asked to step up in a major way?

I don’t see any of those scenarios going in the Grizzlies favor. Which makes them a pretender in my book.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to look like a contender. They are top ten in both offensive and defensive rating. Minnesota has an absolute superstar in Anthony Edwards. Edwards has a gravitational pull that makes it easier for his teammates to score.

Even with the extra attention he receives, Edwards is still having a fantastic season. He is averaging 27.6 points per game while shooting 44% from the floor and 40% from three.

Julius Randle is there second option and is playing very well. So far this season, he is scoring 18.7 points per game and shooting 47% from the floor. Randle can be pointed to as the reason for the Timberwolves improvement. The team is 18-8 when Randle plays since January 1st.

There is a lot of evidence that points towards the Timberwolves being contenders but I’m not convinced. Their dependence on Randle as their second option is what scares me. Teams will try their best to get the ball out of Edwards’ hands in the playoffs and Randle will have to step up. He has not shown that ability in the playoffs yet.

Randle has played 15 playoff games in his career and has played well below his regular season standards. So far in his playoff career, Randle is averaging, 17.1 points per game while shooting 34% from the floor and 28% from three point range.

I do not trust Julius Randle in those moments where the opposing team forces him to be the primary option in a playoff series. The Timberwolves are pretenders unless Randle proves me and the other doubters wrong.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers could be dangerous depending on the match-up they get in the first round, if they make it out of the play-in. If they get the eight seed and have to play against the Thunder, Oklahoma City may make quick work of them.

If the Clippers get the seven seed and play against Houston or Denver, things may get interesting. Kawhi Leonard has looked like prime Kawhi over the last few games. Over the last five games, Leonard is averaging 25.4 points per game while shooting 53% from the floor and 49% from three point range. Leonard has also played an average of 35 minutes per game during this span.

This version of Kawhi Leonard along with James Harden and Norman Powell, who just came back from injury, gives the Clippers three go-to guys in the playoffs. Los Angeles also is a very good defensive team.

They are only allowing 108.6 points per game. The Clippers are fourth in points allowed and defensive rating. If Kawhi Leonard can stay healthy. I know that’s a big “IF” but that could change the whole trajectory of the western conference playoffs.

How many contenders are there?

The western conference is wide open after the Thunder. Oklahoma City is head and shoulders above the rest but two through eight all have a shot to be the team challenging OKC.

The match-ups in the first round will determine a lot going forward in the playoffs. The end of the regular season and playoffs will be very interesting in the west.