The NBA season starts on October 22nd and its time to put in some season long bets or “long term investments” as I like to call them. I have made it my mission to conquer NBA betting this year and that starts with the long term investments.

The odds used in this article are from FanDuel and may be different on other betting sites.

Most Valuable Player

The favorite for to win the MVP award is Luka Doncic at +330. This makes a lot of sense with the year that Doncic had last season. He averaged a league leading 33.9 points, along with 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game as he led the Dallas Mavericks to the fifth seed in the western conference playoffs. Doncic is a safe pick but not the right pick.

My MVP Pick

I am going with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +410 to win the award. He finished second in MVP voting last season and has lots of things going in his favor to win it this year.

SGA is a very dynamic offensive player who is also a very good defender. Last season, he averaged 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to the number one seed in the western conference.

The Thunder are set to have another great season after the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. The MVP winner usually comes from a team with a top four seed in their conference. SGA being the best player, on possibly the best team, in the west will definitely give him an edge in MVP voting.

The Long Shot

There are times where the best story could play a big part in award voting. The MVP award winner that would make for the best story, is Ja Morant. Morant has been through a lot over the last few years and winning the MVP this season would be a great story of perseverance and triumph.

The last time Morant was able to play the majority of the season, he averaged 26.2 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.9 rebounds per game. He led the Memphis Grizzlies to the second seed in the western conference during the 2022-23 season.

The Grizzlies may be the surprise team of the league this season, if they can stay healthy. That’s a big question after all of the injuries they went through last year. If Memphis is back as a top four seed in the playoffs behind a great season from Morant. Don’t be surprised if the +3000 bet pays off for a few bettors out there.

Sixth Man of the Year

The favorite for Sixth Man of the year is Malik Monk of the Sacramento Kings at +550. Monk is the rightful favorite with the scoring production he brings off the bench. Last season, he averaged 15.4 points and 5.1 assists per game on his way to finishing second in sixth man of the year voting. Monk has a good chance to win the award but he is not my pick.

My Pick

The New Orleans Pelicans have not revealed their starting lineup for the regular season but the betting books may know something because CJ McCollum is listed at +1500 for the award.

I believe the McCollum should come off the bench for New Orleans this season. It’s not due to McCollum’s play, it’s about the fit and size of the starting lineup. If the former Lehigh Mountain Hawk is the sixth man for New Orleans, he may average the most minutes and shot attempts of any bench player in the NBA.

Last season, he averaged 20 points and 4.6 assists per game while shooting 46% from the floor and a league leading 43% from three point range. McCollum will be encouraged to continue that production even as a bench player.

The Back-Up

One of the teams that most fans and pundits expect to make a big leap is the San Antonio Spurs. If they take that jump a player who may reap some of the rewards is Keldon Johnson. Johnson is a long shot at +5000 for the award but is one of the most productive bench players in the NBA.

Last season, Johnson averaged 15.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game while shooting 45% from the floor. If he is able to replicate or improve on that production for a team that contends for a playoff spot, he will find himself as a real contender for the award.

Player To Average at least 9 assists per game

There are so many bets that can be made from a season long perspective and one of them is betting on players to average at least nine assists per game. Last season there were only three players who bettors would of made money off of for that bet, Tyrese Haliburton who led the league with 10.8 assists per game, Luka Doncic with 9.8 assists, and Nikola Jokic at exactly 9 assists per game.

The player that came to mind for me when I saw the odds for this bet was the Pelicans’ newest point guard, Dejounte Murray at +380. Murray played alongside Trey Young on the Atlanta Hawks for the last two seasons.

Young, of course is the point guard for the Hawks which cut down on the amount play-making chances for Murray. This season Murray will be back to being a primary ball-handler and decision maker for the offense. This gives Murray a great chance to get back to averaging at least nine assists per game like he did in his last season with the Spurs.

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